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, by David Sally
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Product details
File Size: 5916 KB
Print Length: 392 pages
Page Numbers Source ISBN: 0670922242
Publisher: Penguin Books (July 30, 2013)
Publication Date: July 30, 2013
Sold by: Penguin Group (USA) LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B00BPDR3E2
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On the plus side: "The Numbers Game," to paraphrase Mark Twain, makes a lot of good hamburgers out of sacred cows. Anderson and Sally provide us with much food for thought regarding assumptions about soccer that we may never have questioned before. One great example is the strong evidence they provide that the game's outcome is about half determined by luck. They go a little too far when they say this means soccer is a "coin-toss game," but still, it is a revelation to realize that so much is out of the hands (or off the feet) of the players and coaches. It makes you wonder how much else in sports--and in life--is determined by chance. There's also a connection here to much later in the book, where the authors address the issue of "regression to the mean." Again Anderson and Sally provide us with examples that question how much control coaches and players really have over the game they are trying to influence. It was astounding to learn that in many cases, whether you replace a manager or not can be irrelevant--a team can "regress to the mean" and start improving their play just as much by keeping the manager as by firing him. (The same goes for whether the manager screams at them for losing or calmly explains how they can play better--though the latter, they suggest, is better for morale.) One final point I thought was very important was the evidence the authors provide that money alone does not rule soccer--they prove that there are "plenty of clubs [...] that outperform their salary tab in any given season." This is akin to the argument made about Billy Beane and the Oakland A's in "Moneyball." It's heartening to know that the underdog can still win, any given Sunday, with the appropriate strategy and a bit of luck.On the minus side: One thing I found a little disappointing about the book was that it didn't really have one or two main heroes to root for like Billy Beane or Bill James in "Moneyball"--in fact the book probably mentioned those two sabermetricians almost as much as any other single soccer statistician, manager or player. I think it would've made the book's narrative more compelling overall if the authors had spent more time getting to know say, Tony Pulis of Stoke, Arrigo Sacchi of AC Milan or less famously, Jimmy Davies of Waterloo Dock AFC. All three men were mentioned as fascinating examples of managerial insight, but were only given a few pages to shine. I suppose we'll have to settle for the pioneering role of Wing Commander Charles Reep for now...
Broadly, this is a good book. As other reviewers noted, maybe not as solid as Soccernomics or as math heavy as Beautiful Game Theory:How Soccer Can Help Economics but still well worth the price and can be read in a day or two. The positives I will leave to the 4-5 star reviewers because in general I concur. Instead I'd like to add some negatives that other low-star reviewers have not yet addressed:1. The authors insecurity towards professionals in the field riddles the book. My edition is 338 pages. Way too many of these pages are wasted on the authors attempting to advocate that their very approach -- that is the studying of soccer via improved statistics instead of relying merely on the 'gut feeling' of professionals. I understand the reason for this, after all, here are two 'nerds' trying to change the game, and unlike Billy Beane they are not former professional players or current managers. But the author's desperate need leaks of the pages and definitely interferes with the enjoyment of the book.2. Some of the statistics. This is danger that all pop-science -- and this is what this book truly is -- face. Famous papers become obsolete or in some cases reversed. Specifically I am referring to the "Hot Hand Fallacy" by Tom Gilovich. The authors spend almost 3 pages lovingly describe he paper and also use it as a little kudgel against those unscientific old hands. Unfortunately, the paper has been recently challenged by Jeffrey Zwiebel and Brett Green who have in fact marshaled convincing evidence that Gilovich was mistaken.Now there is nothing wrong with that, papers are published after books are sent to the printers but it raises the question of what other research the authors cite in the book has also been challenged by new developments (if any?).3. Some of the claims the authors make contradict their own claims. To me the most glaring is the argument that all soccer at the top end looks the same -- I dont wholly disagree with the claim, the best teams cant afford to leave stylistic concerns in the face of the pragmatism of winning. But the author's evidence sometimes is contradicted by their own evidence: the four top leagues are the same...but the Spanish league has more fouls and in the German league scoring goals has much less predictive power than in England or Italy..and the Spanish league has a preference for the 4-2-3-1 and the English for the 4-4-1 or the 4-5-1..This is all from their book and these statements all seem to me like differences in the game.Still, all in all as someone who has fallen into the trend of buying these pop-science books for soccer its pretty fun.
Such an interesting read, love the idea of testing the conventional 'truths' of the game against actual data. Plus asking and exploring a bunch of question I had never given thought to. Super interesting
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